If you're new to Rivals, also check out my "Basics" category for a number of useful beginner resources.
Update: The GDI analysis is now out as well!
Just a couple of weeks ago, I published the last analysis of the top Nod decks. But Rivals is a young game, so we still have frequent meta shifts due to balance patches like the recent one, new units being introduced, and players experimenting & learning.
That's why within these two weeks we see some big shifts. Let's get right into the data. This time, I looked at the Top 50 Nod decks. Many players played multiple decks this season, and I chose the decks for each player in a combination of sample size, winrate and recency. I.e. if a player played two decks a lot and they had similar winrates, I'd take the latest one. But if a player had a good sample size and bigger winrate with a different deck, I took that one – after all, we do this to learn what works & what is strong.
How to read the table:
- Frequency is how often a unit / commander appears in a deck
- Low Level (10-11) is the 12 players with decks of level ~10-11 to check what these players chose to still be so successful
- Δ vs Mar 12 is the change in frequency to the previous analysis, given in percentage points (example for the Militant: this time, 40% of decks contain it, this is 20 percentage points higher than last time, when it was just 20%)
- Δ vs average shows how the winrate and unit levels of decks with these cards deviated from the average; for example, decks with Bikes had a 2% lower winrate and and 0.1 lower levels than the average for the Top 50 decks
What can we learn from the basic stats?
Still popular & winners
- The Scorpion Tank stayed extremely popular, with still 88% of decks containing it
- Wheels got even more popular
- A lot of decks dropped Flame Troopers for Militants, which is closely connected to the rise of the Avatar, which was seen in an incredible 42% of the decks – also read my article on how to play against the Avatar, and whether it's too strong
- The Stealth Tank also quadrupled in usage to 40% after it was buffed
- Specifically, there were 16 decks (of 21 Avatar decks) which had the four core units Laser, Wheels, Bike, Stealth Tank, Avatar – usually with Militant or Flame, and Tank or Bike added
- The Basilisk also quadrupled in popularity, albeit on a much lower level – and if you follow the official discord, you might know that it was a reaction to the Avatar's popularity (keyword: Naggrolisk)
- Oxanna saw a further increase in popularity, mostly because it's the standard for Avatar.
Losers
- Bikes & Banshees saw a decline in popularity; they are still a core part of popular decks like the Aggro 2-3-1 Banshee deck, which still is highly successful, so the decline rather seems a side effect of the popularity of Avatar decks rather than any issues with these units
- Flame Troopers were much less used, because Militants are more and more seen as an alternative; the primary driver again are Avatar decks, who try to save money in the early game – besides that, Sniper buffs and the prevalence of wheels might contribute to more players not seeing Flame Troopers as a must-run unit anymore
- My theory on the decline in Jade and Seth is that it's driven by Avatar popularity:
- People playing Jade often wanted to play an alternative to the Nod aggro decks, and this season, Avatar was the flavor of the month
- People playing Seth are often playing the standard 2-3-1 Banshee deck, where both Oxanna and Seth are very viable options
- Same counts for Inferno / Phantom; some high-profile users of them switched to Avatar decks; with only Bikerush running a combination of both
- The Buggy is even used less now – unsurprisingly with the ubiquity of Wheels and the strange nerf of it's vision from 3 to 2
- Tech usage outside of Avatar and Basilisk basically vanished from an already low level
Unit Levels and Winrate
Below, find a chart that illustrates the distribution of Unit Levels, and how the respective average Winrates look like. I was not scientifically precise in tracking unit levels, I rounded them to .5 levels when tracking the decks.
Some of you might be surprised by the low deviation of winrates – but remember that this is Top 50 by medals, not skill. Medals are a measure of strength, which is a compound of skill and unit levels. So on average, the players with low unit levels that still make it to the Top 50 will be more skilled, allowing them to still have impressive winrates, e.g.:
- Magni with 96% winrate on a L11.5 Avatar deck
- 13lade with 95% winrate on an L11 Naggrolisk deck
- StrikerVX with 91% winrate on an L10 Naggrolisk deck (incredible feat in my view)
- Benedikt Ernst with 85% winrate on an L10.5 2-3-1 Banshee deck
Unusual Decks
This time, there were not so many unusual decks. Boring Avatar meta. Honorable mentions go to:
- AliciaDestiny holding up the flag for the Buggy
- spritc & Chuckylate seeing success with Chem Troopers and Jade
- car1986 for the resilience to stick to his no infantry deck for such a long time
- SoliDeiGlora for the deck with 4 air units
And keep your eyes open for the GDI version that I want to publish before the season ends!
good work;)
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